Mick Ryan, AMVerificeret konto

21/23 The eastern theatre is a significant threat for the Ukrainian high command. If Russian forces make a breakthrough in the east, or are able to advance to Dnipro, we could see a significant change in the war’s momentum.

20/23 They will also need better air-land integration to gain improved intelligence on Ukrainian forces, target Ukrainian combat and logistic units, and to attack Ukrainian operational reserves further west.

19/23 And the Russians must demonstrate better tactical competence to undertake an advance on Dnipro from the northeast while maintaining contact with Ukrainian forces further east.

18/23 The next challenge remains logistics. Recent briefings by the Pentagon indicate that the Russians are yet to resolve their logistics challenges. And they are likely (again) to have issues with rear area security.

17/23 Challenges remain. Russia needs more soldiers & to re-equip; building competent, well-led combined arms teams takes time. But Russia’s population of ~144 million has ~40 million people between the ages of 20 & 39. Theoretically, they have a large capacity for mobilisation.

16/23 The Russians probably see more opportunity for tactical success with a straight up conventional attrition fight. This might see them fix Ukrainian forces in the Donbas while also attempting to envelopment them with the advance on Dnipro. Both will be bloody struggles.

15/23 What are the opportunities that the Russians see in this region? First, the ground is more suitable for large scale mechanised maneuver. And despite their significant losses of armoured vehicles so far, the Russians do still have thousands in reserve.

14/23 Concentrating on operations in the east is a also simpler operational design for the Russians. C2 across this eastern front, at least in theory, should be easier than the previous situation that had distinct fronts in the north, east & south.

12/23 The Russians are attempting to resolve their operational command & control (C2). Previously they were fighting independent wars in the north, east, south, and in the air. Unity of effort is an important principle of war & is normally part of the design for joint operations.

11/23 The Russian air force has been conducting up to 250 sorties per day in the east and around Mariupol. At a minimum, this means they have the capacity to undertake some level of air support to ground operations. However, the quality of air-land integration is uncertain.

9/23 According to the Pentagon, another 10 BTGs have flowed into the east in recent days. This is an increase on the 30 already in the area – a significant reinforcement. Of course, the condition of these is unknown, particularly manning, equipment and leadership.

8/23 How well postured is Russia for this? It is certainly moving quickly to launch a large operation in the east.

7/23 This Russian operation would seek full territorial control of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts. The ultimate objective would be to seize all Ukrainian territory east of Dnipro, destroy Ukrainian forces in the east, and be postured for war termination.

6/23 Finally, Dnipro is an important regional transport hub. It is the locus of major highways, water transport on the Dnieper, and possesses a major airport. It is, vitally, the regional hub for major rail networks.

5/23 Dnipro is also a significant manufacturing centre for Ukraine. Not only is there vehicle & machinery plants, chemicals and food processing, it is a major metals producing centre. With most metallurgical products exported, it is an import source of Ukraine’s foreign income.

4/23 First, why does Dnipro matter? It is a significant city on the Dnieper River. It is Ukraine’s fourth largest city. That alone gives it significant political importance for both sides. Therefore this is a political target as well as a military one.